Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along portions
of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast tonight.

...Middle and Upper Texas Coast...

Water vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough currently moving
through South TX with a downstream belt of forcing for ascent
expected to yield an increase in storm coverage and intensity
tonight over the coastal plain and adjacent near-shore waters. In
the low levels, a weak cyclone may deepen over the shelf water along
a baroclinic zone pivoting toward the coast. The strongest storms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of those features, which
will coincide with greater surface-based buoyancy. 

Onshore instability will remain more limited and elevated atop a
stable near-surface inversion. The 00Z CRP and BRO soundings are
likely representative of the ambient thermodynamic environment with
around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and a modestly steep lapse-rate profile
noted in the 600-500 mb layer at CRP. The current KHGX VWP is
sampling generally 35-50 kt west-southwesterly winds above 4 km,
which are contributing sufficient deep-layer shear to support
episodic supercell structures embedded within the broader convective
shield. Marginally severe hail will be the primary hazard with the
strongest storms.

..Mead.. 11/11/2026