Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from
the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough,
moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma,
where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This
would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern
Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern
extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough
instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an
isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the
system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday,
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the
central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an
isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida
Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough
passes.