Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

Split upper-level flow will start out the extended period on Day
3/Sunday with a cutoff low over Baja California and a positively
tilted shortwave trough progressing east through the Great Lakes
region. By Day 4/Monday, upper-level flow becomes largely zonal
across northern portions of the CONUS. The aforementioned
upper-level low begins to move eastward, passing through the
southern Plains on Day 6/Wednesday in phase with another
strengthening shortwave trough progressing across the northern
Plains.

On Day 3/Sunday, a 40% area was introduced over portions of
northeast New Mexico and the west Texas Panhandle where afternoon
RHs are expected to drop to 8-15% coinciding with west-southwest
sustained winds at 15-25 mph. A 40% area was strongly considered for
portions of the northern High Plains, especially near the Black
Hills where the lowest afternoon RHs of 15-25% would combine with
the strongest westerly sustained winds of 15-25 mph. However, given
recent and ongoing precipitation, including snow, over these areas
on Day 1/Friday and forecast uncertainty, probabilities were not
introduced. 

Weaker flow on Day 4/Monday over the Southwest and adjacent southern
High Plains is likely to present sub-Elevated fire weather
conditions. Thus, the decision was made to not include any marginal
probabilities with this issuance. Future outlooks will reconsider
this potential as forecast guidance evolves.

The aforementioned cutoff low begins to move eastward through the
Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 5/Tuesday and Day
6/Wednesday likely bringing precipitation to portions of the region.
While there are likely to be differences in the exact placement and
track of any precipitation, it does appear that some relief could be
headed for portions of these areas of recent concern.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...