Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

An upper low will merge with a mid-level trough and traverse the
Plains early this week, before ejecting into the Atlantic by the
weekend. Thereafter, a zonal upper-air pattern will overspread the
CONUS through the weekend. The initial passage of a surface trough 
will result in high pressure and somewhat dry air overspreading the
CONUS east of the Rockies through the week. First, downslope flow
over the southern Rockies will result in dry/breezy conditions over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3 (Tuesday), where 40
percent critical probabilities have been introduced. Strong
northerly surface flow will then overspread the Plains on Day 4
(Wednesday) with the initial high pressure surge, though questions
of how low RH will get precludes Critical probabilities at this
time.

A mid-level impulse, with a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak, will
overspread the northern Plains on Day 5/Thursday, resulting in
strong surface low development. Widespread dry and windy conditions
are expected across the High Plains (delineated by 40 percent
Critical probabilities) due to gradient flow. 70 percent Critical
probabilities have been added across western Nebraska and immediate
surrounding areas, where medium-range guidance consensus and
consistency shows Critically dry/windy conditions overlapping dry
fuels. Regionally dry and breezy conditions should continue across
portions of the central High Plains on Friday and perhaps into the
weekend, as strong upper flow continues to overspread the region.

..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...