Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
WYOMING...FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...EXTREME WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

Much of the previous forecast remains on track based on the latest
guidance consensus. Elevated highlights were expanded farther east
toward the mid-Mississippi Valley region, where 15-25 percent RH, 15
mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, and highly receptive
fuels, will overlap to support relatively robust wildfire spread
potential. Elevated highlights were also trimmed from much of
central Utah, where the latest guidance consensus has trended
somewhat weaker with wind speeds, lessening the fire spread threat
to a degree given marginally receptive fuels. Please see the
previous forecast below for details on wildfire-spread potential
across the Intermountain West to the central and southern Plains.

..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026/

...Synopsis...
A cold front will surge south through the northern/central Great
Plains and northern Great Basin with a surface low developing
southward in the lee of the Rockies. A widespread strengthening of
surface winds ahead of this frontal system coupled with reduced RH
values is forecast to support elevated to critical fire weather
concerns from the southern/eastern Great Basin through the central
Great Plains.

...Southern/eastern Great Basin to the central Great Plains...
Forecast guidance continues to depict at least a temporary break
down of the upper-level ridge centered over the Southwest on
D2/Saturday as a shortwave trough crests the ridge and moves through
the Pacific Northwest. Simultaneously, a surface low will develop
southward in the lee of the Rockies while an associated cold front
advances southward across much of the West and the Great Plains. The
strongest sustained winds (20-30 mph) coupled with minimum RH values
of 10-15% are forecast to support critical fire weather conditions
across southeastern Wyoming and adjacent portions of western
Nebraska, northwestern Colorado, extreme northeastern Utah, and
extreme southwestern South Dakota. Modest westerly mid-level flow
coupled with deep boundary layer mixing will also support the
potential for occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph across this area.

Elsewhere within the Elevated highlights, a strengthening surface
pressure gradient ahead of this frontal system will support
widespread sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph. With continuing
potential for record warm temperatures across much of the West
aiding in the drying of fine fuels and forecast RH values of 10-20%
(locally down to 5%) during peak heating, widespread elevated fire
weather conditions are expected from the southern/eastern Great
Basin eastward to the central Great Plains and from portions of West
Texas northward to Wyoming. While much of the high elevations of the
central Rockies are within the Elevated area, fuel conditions and
snow cover will preclude any fire weather concerns in those areas.

The southward moving cold front will then bring a shift to northerly
winds for the central/northern High Plains and northern Great Basin.
This front is anticipated to be dry, however, which may bring the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions to temporarily
persist after the frontal passage.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...