000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082035
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
300 PM CST Mon Jun 08 2026
 
Cristina is a sheared tropical storm this afternoon.  Deep 
convection had been partially obscuring the low-level center until a 
couple of hours ago.  Now the coldest cloud tops are concentrated to 
the south of the exposed circulation.  Subjective and objective 
satellite estimates range between 32 to 40 kt. The initial intensity 
is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data.

The tropical storm continues to move northward at 5 kt, nearing the 
coast of Nicaragua.  A subtropical ridge is located north of 
Cristina and should turn the storm northwestward on Tuesday, 
parallel the coast until landfall.  However, this scenario seems 
tied to the depth of the cyclone, and is at odds with the monsoonal 
low-level flow bringing the center closer to the coast.  The 
official forecast remains on the eastern side of the guidance, 
closest to the latest ECMWF and just west of GDMI.  This track 
forecast brings the center over land sooner than the previous 
prediction, however any adjustments further northward could 
significantly change the timing of landfall. 

Competing factors make the intensity forecast somewhat uncertain.  
Strong deep vertical wind shear is expected to plague Cristina for 
the next couple of days.  However, high sea surface temperatures 
(29-30 degrees C) and a moist mid-level environment do support 
further strengthening.  The official forecast shows some gradual 
intensification for the next couple of days until the effects of 
land are expected to cause weakening and dissipation by the end of 
the week.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras as early as this evening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 12.1N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 12.4N  87.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 12.6N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 12.9N  88.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 13.3N  89.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 13.9N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST
 72H  11/1800Z 14.9N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci