Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEVADA...NORTHERN
ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH...SOUTHERN
WYOMING...AND WESTERN COLORADO...

***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected on Day 2/Saturday
across the Four Corners into portions of the Colorado Plateau***

...Afternoon Update...
An Extremely Critical risk area was introduced where guidance
depicts an overlap of sustained 25-35 mph southwesterly winds and
less than 10% RH on Day 2/Saturday. Despite some recent rainfall
across the West Slope, appreciable precipitation was not common, and
rather quite localized. Widespread 80-95th percentile ERCs and
recently receptive fuels will be conducive to rapid spread/fire
growth on existing wildfires and any new ignitions. Furthermore,
isolated dry thunderstorms on Day 1/Friday present additional
concerns for potential lightning holdovers to emerge as several days
of hot, dry and windy conditions ensue. An extended burning period
is expected (10+ hours for some locations) with poor overnight
humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds leading into another
day of critical fire weather conditions (see the Day 3-8 Fire
Weather Outlook). 

The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0302 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will continue to dig into the
western CONUS on D2/Saturday, with an attendant mid-level jet
overspreading much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. This will
continue to support a robust fire weather pattern across an
expansive portion of the Great Basin and Southwest through the
weekend.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
As the mid-level jet associated with the digging mid-level trough
shifts eastward into the Upper Colorado River Valley, a corridor of
stronger, sustained surface winds (25-30 mph) will expand from
southeastern Nevada into the Colorado Plateau and overlap with very
low RH values of 10-15%. Exacerbated by dry, windy conditions on
D1/Friday, fuels will be very receptive, with ERCs already noted in
the 80-90+ percentiles. These conditions will promote an extended
period of critical fire weather conditions from southeastern Nevada
into the Upper Colorado River Basin and southern Wyoming. Localized
extremely critical wind/RH conditions are possible, particularly
across southeastern Utah and perhaps into southwestern Colorado
where latest high-res guidance suggests that the best overlap of
sustained southwesterly winds approaching 30 mph and very low RH
near 10% may occur. Pockets of fuels in this region are also noted
to be at or above the 95th percentile. A broader area of elevated
wind/RH conditions are expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin/Southwest where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to
overlap dry fuels and RH values of 10-20%.

The primary change with this outlook was to expand the Critical
highlights into north central Colorado based on the latest high-res
guidance. Consideration was given to the addition of a targeted
Extremely Critical area; however, some uncertainty remains regarding
the duration of overlap between sustained winds exceeding 30 mph and
RH values dropping below 10%. A portion of the Elevated highlights
were also trimmed across central Wyoming and the foothills of
northern Colorado owing to recent rainfall.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...