Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S.
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level
trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven
by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating
of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S.,
will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from
eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least
isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the
Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches.

...Pacific Northwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low
to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening.
These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary
layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse
rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly
flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm
organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category
1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin
in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by
afternoon peak heating becomes apparent.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024