Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low
on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and
Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated
frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great
Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains.
Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with
storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico
and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. 

...Western Great Lakes...
Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient
to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front
in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening.
However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat
limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. 

...Northeast New Mexico...
A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward
northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday
afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be
sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can
develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm
organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too
weak for a Marginal risk.

..Bentley.. 09/03/2024