Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Upper Midwest...
Lower-end severe potential remains evident on Thursday afternoon to
evening across a focused portion of the Upper Midwest, centered on
the eastern Dakotas to western MN per latest guidance. A shortwave
trough over the southern Prairie Provinces into the northern Great
Plains should gradually move east. An attendant north/south-oriented
cold front should similarly progress across the Dakotas towards
western MN. In the mid-levels, a plume of steep lapse rates should
be coincident with a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly flow. The
warm-moist sector ahead of the front will likely be confined with
decreasing boundary-layer moisture along/east of the Upper MS
Valley. As such, the overall threat area will probably be fairly
narrow and predictability is too low for a 15 percent highlight. 

...D6-7/Southern High Plains to Mid-MO Valley...
The next shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should
remain positive tilt and slow moving, until the weekend when
guidance consensus suggests it accelerates northeastward. The
attendant belt of enhanced mid-level flow around this trough appears
spatially confined, as a ridge dominates from the Lower Rio Grande
Valley to southeast Canada. Coupled with muted mid-level lapse rates
over most of the Great Plains, severe potential appears marginal.