Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

...Gulf Coast and Carolinas...
A stalled frontal zone across parts of the Southeast will begin to
move southeastward as an initial shortwave trough over the lower MS
Valley and Southeast amplifies. Aided by additional troughing
upstream over the central and northern Plains, flow aloft will
intensify and turn northwesterly helping to deepen a surface cyclone
along the frontal zone over GA and SC. The increased mid-level
ascent and strengthening frontal forcing will move eastward into
parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Carolinas Saturday afternoon.
With dewpoints in the mid 60s F, some destabilization is expected
with daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rate suggest buoyancy
will be relatively modest, but sufficient for scattered storm
development across central AL/GA and the southern Carolinas.

Ongoing elevated storms early Saturday morning should persist and
move southeastward with additional development expected ahead of the
front through the afternoon. Strong mostly unidirectional westerly
flow will likely support some organization into bands or clusters.
Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though hail and
a brief tornado are possible given the moist surface conditions and
supercell shear profiles. Convection should gradually weaken as the
front approaches the coast later Saturday evening and large-scale
ascent lifts away to the northeast.

..Lyons.. 02/19/2026