Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong may linger across South Texas this
afternoon.

...20z Update...
The Marginal across south Texas was removed with this outlook as
storm intensity has decreased with conditions becoming less
favorable. Only minor adjustments were made to trim on the western
fringe of the Marginal Area across the Carolinas to account for
ongoing convective trends. See previous discussion for more
information.

..Thornton.. 03/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/

...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.

...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.