Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, mainly late this
afternoon into the evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians...
Midday water-vapor imagery indicates a mid-level shortwave trough
over Lower Michigan as a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow is
maintained across the north-central U.S. eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal vicinity.  This disturbance is
forecast to quickly move to the Delmarva/NJ by midnight.  

The northern extent of a moisture plume, and an airmass still
undergoing modification over the Gulf Basin, will protrude northeast
into the upper OH Valley by late afternoon.  Forecast guidance shows
surface dewpoints perhaps reaching near 50 deg F near the OH-WV-PA
border region towards 00z.  Cold 500-mb temperatures and diurnal
heating will act to partially compensate for modest moisture and
contribute to weak buoyancy.  Isolated to widely scattered
low-topped thunderstorms will probably develop along a
southeastward-moving cold front during the evening. Elongated
hodographs support updraft organization but the overall limited
moisture will act to constrain otherwise greater storm coverage. 
Marginally severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging gusts are
the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Mosier.. 03/20/2026