Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will traverse the Great Basin on Day
3/Wednesday and persist over the northwest and central CONUS through
the early weekend. Upper ridging will continue over the eastern U.S.
through Day 4/Thursday before transitioning to fairly zonal flow
over the Southeast through the weekend. Precipitation will be
possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians
with an associated shortwave trough on Day 3/Wednesday. However,
much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry this
week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day
5/Friday. On Day 6/Saturday, a low-amplitude trough is forecast to
enter the southwestern U.S and traverse the High Plains early next
week. This pattern change could bring relief to portions of the
central/southern Plains and broader southeast as precipitation
chances increase. However, in areas that remain dry, fire weather
concerns are likely to linger given the overall pattern.

...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
On Day 3/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation
chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front.
Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and
breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have
been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities were
maintained where westerly winds of up to 15 mph and 20-30 percent RH
are forecast to overlap dry fuels.

A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft
will bring an expansive fire weather threat to much of the High
Plains and portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. 70%
critical probabilities have been expanded where a mid-level jet
should align with tightening surface pressure gradients, promoting
strong southwesterly winds of up to 30 mph and RH of 10 percent or
less. Downslope enhanced drying and strong westerly winds will
continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day
4/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40%
Critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and
Southern Plains, and 70% Critical probabilities were introduced on
Day 4/Thursday for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle where a corridor
of strong downslope winds and critically low RH will overlap dry
fuels.

...Day 5-7/Friday-Sunday...
As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal
flow over the Southwest should promote very breezy and continued dry
conditions on Day 5/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities were
introduced where ensemble guidance portrays an overlap of low RH and
strong winds. An incoming secondary trough may continue fire weather
concerns across the Southwest and south/central Plains this weekend
where fuels remain dry. However, model ambiguity in timing and
location of the trough precludes the introduction of probabilities
at this time.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...