Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...Afternoon Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the Elevated fire weather risk
area to include more of the southeastern CO Plains. Localized
critical fire weather conditions are expected along the
central-southern CO/northern NM Mountain chain into the adjacent
foothills. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is currently traversing
the southern Rockies while lee surface troughing tightens east of
the higher terrain, promoting gusty gap-flow and downslope winds
through the afternoon. Current surface observations depict
widespread RH values below 20% and some areas gusting over 40 mph (a
few observed 50+ mph gusts in south-central CO), with these
conditions already impacting the Aspen Acres wildfire. The smaller
spatial extent of expected fire weather conditions limits the
introduction of broader Critical highlights; however, very gusty
winds and low RH will further exacerbate the fire environment,
increasing concerns for rapid spread/fire growth on existing
wildfires and new ignitions. In addition, some mid-level moisture
may advect slightly more northward into Rio Grande Valley and
central-northern NM higher terrain later tonight. A lightning
ignition cannot be ruled out with any storms that may develop
(especially where drier fuels exist), though anticipated coverage
limits the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. 

In southeast WY and the NE Panhandle, sparse fuels preclude the
expansion of Elevated highlights. However, dry and breezy conditions
may support localized fire concerns where pockets of drier fuels
exist.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the
Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will
transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting
mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating
southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will
help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin
and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering
enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive
fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest today.

...Southwest/Four Corners region...
The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will
support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and
several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel
dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or
greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah,
western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern
Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional
wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. 

The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will
extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New
Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th
percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger
later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote
marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this
area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and
broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A
targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should
guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH
conditions across a more widespread area within this region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...