500

ABPZ20 KNHC 182354

TWOEP



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending

from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur

southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an

elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and

land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance,

and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming

are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance will

likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and

other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next few days.

Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should

monitor the progress of this disturbance. Some of the moisture

from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the

southwestern United States on Thursday and Friday, enhancing

rainfall potential in that area.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest

of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental

conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development

of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly

west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi




Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook