Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and associated stream of mid/upper-level Pacific
moisture should bring substantial precipitation to the West Coast
through Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. A mid-level ridge progressing
eastward into the central U.S. in tandem with a developing surface
trough across the central/northern Plains will promote a return of
relatively deeper Gulf moisture and warming temperatures into the
Southern Plains on Thursday, reaching the Upper Midwest by the
weekend via expansive moderate southerly/southwesterly low-level
flow. Dry conditions will persist in the central/southern High
Plains through at least Friday, with deeper return flow moisture
kept farther east. Fire weather concerns should be reduced overall
across the eastern U.S. as atmospheric moisture increases into the
weekend as more favorable Gulf return flow trajectories emerge.

...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Southern High Plains...
Dry conditions across the central U.S. will remain in place through
the end of the week as broad ridging builds over the region.
Persistent deep layer westerly flow over the Southwest and weak
surface lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote dry and
breezy conditions across eastern NM/TX Panhandle Thursday. Slightly
stronger winds on Friday should support a broader fire weather
threat in eastern NM/TX Panhandle where 40 percent critical
probabilities remain.

...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
The central and southern Plains landscape remains dry, with
additional receptive fuels likely developing after recent frost
freeze events. However, considerable forecast uncertainty emerges
over the weekend regarding a potential cut-off low moving into the
Southwest. Fire weather concerns could extend into the weekend time
frame across the Southern Plains as accelerating mid-level flow over
the Southern Rockies and incipient lee troughing possibly emerge.
Increasing uncertainty from longer term ensemble and forecast
guidance, particularly with positioning/timing of the cut-off low
and associated stronger wind fields, precludes introduction of
critical probabilities into early next week.

..Williams.. 11/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...