000

ABNT20 KNHC 012331

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Lorenzo, located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the western

Azores.



A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean

Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Although surface pressures are low across the area, the circulation

is currently weak. Any development of this system is expected to be

slow to occur while it moves to the west-northwest near the Yucatan

peninsula in a couple of days, and over the southern Gulf of Mexico

by Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



Disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend from the

southeastern Bahamas northeastward across the western Atlantic for

several hundred miles are associated with a surface trough.

Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it

moves to the northeast or north at 5 to 10 mph, remaining well to

south of Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



$$

Forecaster Stewart


Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook