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#685219
Fri 17 Mar 2023 08:58:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
SPC Mar 17, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather OutlookDay 4-8 Outlook  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS on Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday, as appreciable low-level moisture should generally remain confined to the FL Peninsula. Medium-range guidance shows general agreement that an upper trough will move over the western CONUS around the middle of next week, and eject over the Plains late next week. As surface lee cyclogenesis occurs ahead of this feature, low-level moisture should return northward across parts of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and perhaps the Midwest from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday.
Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms will probably be realized on Thursday across portions of these regions as both instability and shear strengthen ahead of a cold front/dryline. However, there are still notable differences/spread in both deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough, and placement of related surface features. Parts of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity may eventually need a 15% severe delineation once better run-to-run and inter-model consistency increases. Depending on the evolution of the upper trough and low-level moisture return ahead of it, a severe threat may also exist across parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast on Day 8/Friday.
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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