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#729484
Tue 16 Jul 2024 10:33:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 1658MD 1658 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ![](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1658.png)
Mesoscale Discussion 1658 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Portions of southern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 162134Z - 162300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of severe storms currently over eastern New York will continue eastward across southern New England into tonight. The primary concern is damaging straight-line winds, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KENX depicts an MCS with embedded/deep rotating updrafts tracking eastward across the Hudson Valley at around 40-50 kt. This line has been producing severe gusts (generally associated with embedded mesovorticies), and a couple tornadoes have also been noted.
Over the next few hours, this line will continue eastward across southern New England. Ahead of the line, earlier diurnal heating (lower 90s temperatures) of a moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) should support its maintenance -- despite slightly weaker buoyancy with eastward extent. Additionally, around 40-50 kt of westerly deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) oriented perpendicular to the well-established gust front, and a developing low-level jet, should favor continued convective organization. The strong deep-layer shear (and favorable/increasing low-level hodograph curvature) should yield embedded supercells/mesovorticies capable of severe gusts (generally 65-75 mph) and perhaps a localized tornado threat. A watch will likely be issued in the next hour or so.
..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 41507263 41807305 42967285 43727254 44197232 44407163 44297088 44097026 43816986 42467002 41757013 41537053 41427200 41507263
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1658.html
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