000

ABPZ20 KNHC 312335

TWOEP



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently

upgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles

southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.



Western East Pacific (EP95):

Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with

an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the

southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Environmental conditions appear marginal for further development of

this system over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to

move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the western

portion of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



South of Central America and Southern Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of

Central America is producing some disorganized showers and

thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this

system later this week, and environmental conditions appear

conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely

to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to

west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,

remaining offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under

WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under

WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.



$$

Forecaster Bucci


Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook