Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday,
though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into
parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on
Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time,
as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of
the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to
slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a
reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and
Midwest.

...Lake Erie/Ohio Vicinity...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Friday
afternoon as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Weak lapse rates and
a lack of richer low-level moisture will result in only modest
instability, but strong forcing ahead of the approaching trough
should permit for some stronger storms to develop Friday afternoon.
A well-mixed, inverted-v type thermodynamic profile will support
some gusty winds. However, the lack of stronger lower tropospheric
flow or greater instability will likely preclude a more widespread
damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, if greater instability appears
possible, severe probabilities may eventually be warranted.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2024