Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today
across part of northeastern New Mexico.

...Northeastern New Mexico...
A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies
today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the
southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across
northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the
surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop
ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is
expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move
southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the
cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak
destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg
range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in
northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range,
with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This
should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with
the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the
stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout
much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from
northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico.

..Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024