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#736915
Fri 13 Sep 2024 02:35:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 131435
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 23 3(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
LA PAZ 34 4 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Source: Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
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