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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 2083MD 2083 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Areas affected...parts of eastern South Dakota...adjacent northeastern Nebraska and southwestern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181953Z - 182230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of one or two strong storms appears possible late this afternoon. Sustained storm development may include the evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail, and perhaps some potential for a tornado by early evening. Due to the isolated nature, it is not certain that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Although stronger mid-level height falls appear to be shifting to the north, a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer across the eastern South Dakota vicinity will remain beneath weakly difluent cyclonic mid-level flow into early evening. With mixed-layer CAPE now on the order of 1500 J/kg, beneath 30-50 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of supercells, and low-level hodographs may enlarge with clockwise curvature as southerly flow around 850 mb is forecast to strengthen some (to around 30+ kt) through 22-00Z.
Although low-level forcing for sustained convective development remains unclear, weak warm advection to the east of the dryline may be supporting ongoing attempts at deepening convection east of Huron into the Watertown vicinity. And objective analysis has indicated a persistent localized area of enhanced convergence along a confluence zone near/west of Yankton.
Model output, including the convection allowing guidance, suggest that probabilities for thunderstorm development are generally low into early evening. However, the initiation of one or two storms appears possible. If this is sustained, this may include the evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail, and perhaps some potential for a tornado.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/18/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...
LAT...LON 45389647 44609622 42819716 42949859 44379830 45219788 45549726 45389647
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2083.html
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