000
WTNT44 KNHC 062053
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
 
Milton is rapidly intensifying.  Satellite images indicate very
deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to
appear.  The last fix from the aircraft showed that the
central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80
minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface.  Since
that time, satellite images continue to show further organization,
and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.
 
Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt.  This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves 
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton.  This 
evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and 
then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the 
Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas.  The 
NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, 
following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government 
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern 
coast of Yucatan.  Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly 
north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the 
forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track 
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on 
the exact track.
 
The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid 
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within 
light shear and over very deep warm waters.  Intensity guidance is 
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with 
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in 
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two.  The NHC forecast is 
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus 
model and still could be too low.  Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and 
some weakening is anticipated.  However, the regional hurricane 
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are 
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very 
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing 
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards 
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the 
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this 
system and listen to local officials.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the 
west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to 
not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains 
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of 
Milton. 

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location 
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- 
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west 
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm 
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early 
Monday.  Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice 
given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through 
Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly 
related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This 
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal 
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river 
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions 
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane 
Watch are in effect. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 22.4N  93.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 22.2N  92.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 22.2N  90.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 22.6N  89.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 23.6N  86.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 25.2N  85.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 27.0N  83.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 29.8N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 31.4N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Blake