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Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 027 WTPZ43 KNHC 042034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone has become better organized, during the past several hours. A curved band has developed over the west side of the cyclone, and deep convection is developing over the surface center. A 1336 UTC ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) overpass indicated 34-40 kt winds in the north quadrant of the cyclone, and a 1746 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed 38 kt winds in the same region. ADT/AiDT and ATMS sounder objective satellite intensity estimates yield 34 kts, while the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support 35 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Henriette with the initial intensity set at 40 kt. The intensity forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous one with gradual strengthening expected during the next couple of days. By mid-period, Henriette should slowly weaken and then level off with little change in strength as it traverses cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moves into a drier, more stable surrounding environment. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a bit to agree more with the Decay-SHIPS, the IVCN intensity consensus model, and the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/13 kt. The global models indicate that a strong mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Henriette in this general direction through 96 hours. Around day 5, a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected in response to a mid-latitude mid-level trough moving toward the Hawaiian Islands from the north-central Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.5N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.3N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.1N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.6N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 18.1N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 18.4N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.5N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 147.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts Source: Tropical Storm Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 3
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