Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will
slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This
will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the
Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of
wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern
Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated
mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote
dry and breezy conditions across  northern AZ and southern UT on Day
3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40%
critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the
wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire
weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the
weekend.

Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable
uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough
into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation
and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional
rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire
weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday
period across the Northwest.

..Williams.. 09/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...