SPC MD 154
MD 0154 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 17... FOR NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN

Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Northern Indiana into southern Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 17...

Valid 070037Z - 070230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 17
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east across northern Indiana
and southern lower Michigan for the next couple of hours before
gradually weakening. Damaging gusts remain the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS and GOES IR imagery continue to show new
updraft development within a squall line draped from southern MI
into northwest IN, and local radar imagery continues to show a few
bowing segments within the line. Regional VWPs and latest RAP
mesoanalysis continues to show a strongly sheared environment in
place across the region with 0-3 km BWD values on the order of 30-40
knots and 40-50 knots winds within the lowest kilometer. This
kinematic environment will continue to support the potential for
organized/bowing segments within the line with an attendant threat
for severe/damaging winds - especially with any
meridionally-oriented segments. With time, a gradual weakening trend
is expected as the squall line outpaces the axis of better
surface-based buoyancy draped from western IL into northern IN. The
onset of nocturnal cooling will further contribute to an overall
reduction in convective intensity in the coming hours.

..Moore.. 03/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40888772 41418696 41968605 42408539 43018453 42998411
            42818366 42548353 42258366 41478464 41108518 40858569
            40688634 40668681 40658709 40678735 40698751 40758766
            40888772 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0154.html