Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Monday across parts of the
lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast.

...Lower MS and TN Valleys into the Southeast...
A southern-stream, low-amplitude midlevel impulse and accompanying
40-kt speed max will advance eastward from the central Plains into
the TN Valley through the afternoon and evening. Steepened midlevel
lapse rates accompanying this feature will overspread a plume of
middle/upper 60s dewpoints, which combined with diurnal heating in
cloud breaks, will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over
the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley). 

Initial thunderstorms should develop within a zone of weak/broad
low-level warm advection preceding the midlevel impulse over the
Arklatex vicinity, before spreading/developing eastward through the
afternoon/evening. Around 40 kt of effective shear (with modestly
enhanced low-level hodograph curvature) and the aforementioned
buoyancy should support a mix of small organized clusters and
supercells -- both posing a risk of large hail and locally damaging
gusts. Any established semi-discrete supercells that evolve will be
capable of producing very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Weinman.. 03/08/2026