Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...

***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across
portions of the Great Basin and Southwest***

...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central
Utah...
The forecast remains on track for hazardous weather conditions
conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new
ignitions. Surface observations already depict expansive
single-digit RH values with wind gusts exceeding 30 mph. ERCs are at
or above the 90th percentile, and fuels have proven to be receptive
as several large wildfires (reported to have extreme fire behavior)
are ongoing across the region. At peak heating, sustained
southwesterly surface winds will increase to 25-35 mph amid 5-12% RH
values. An extended burning period is expected (10+ hours for some
locations), as poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty
winds will lead into a second day of dangerous fire weather
conditions (see the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook).

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0300 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest today as a robust fire weather pattern
begins for an expansive portion of the Intermountain West. This
pattern will bring exceptionally dry and windy conditions following
antecedent dry thunderstorm activity over the past 1-2 days,
resulting in significant fire weather concerns for any new
ignitions, lingering holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the
western CONUS.

...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central
Utah...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will dig into the western CONUS
today, with an attendant mid-level jet overspreading portions of the
Great Basin as upper-level ridging amplifies over the Great Plains.
This will promote a deepening surface cyclone over the northern
Great Basin, which will subsequently support a strong surface
pressure gradient across much of the Intermountain West when
combined with surface high pressure over New Mexico. Latest high-res
guidance continues to depict a corridor of strong southwesterly
winds (sustained 25-35 mph) developing amid very low RH values of
5-15% from far southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona into
central Utah. With very dry and receptive fuels across this region
(ERCs in the 80-90+ percentiles) and ongoing large wildfire
activity, these conditions will yield an extremely critical fire
weather threat across this region. Deep boundary layer mixing
coupled with the aforementioned mid-level jet will also promote wind
gusts to 45 mph. A more expansive area of elevated to critical fire
weather concerns is expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin where modestly weaker sustained surface winds (generally 15-25
mph) are forecast to overlap very low RH values of 5-20%. An
extended period of critical wind/RH conditions (perhaps 10+ hours
for some locations), poor overnight humidity recoveries, and
residual gusty winds are forecast. Only minor adjustments were made
to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest available
guidance, and minor trimming was done on the northeastern extent of
the Elevated highlights in central Wyoming to account for heavier
rainfall on Thursday.

...Colorado Plateau...
Increasing mid-level flow and ascent ahead of the approaching
mid-level trough (coupled with dry boundary layer profiles and PWAT
values of 0.5-0.8") will support the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms this afternoon from northwestern New Mexico into much
of western Colorado. While storm motions are anticipated to be
generally 20-30+ kts, pockets of heavier rainfall totals are
possible, especially across northwestern New Mexico and southwestern
Colorado where the latest guidance suggests PWAT contents and storm
coverage may be locally greater. Thus, a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms is likely. Pockets of lingering receptive fuels (ERCs
in the 80-90+ percentile) will continue to be receptive to lightning
ignitions, however, and concerns regarding any lightning ignitions
increase as multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...