Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas and Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the
Intermountain West to the northern Plains on Monday. Strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of the
trough. At the surface, a low over eastern MT will develop northeast
into the Canadian Prairies, and a trailing cold front will push east
across portions of NE/SD/ND. A moist airmass will be in place ahead
of the front, promoting areas of moderate instability. Vertically
veering wind profiles, and strengthening midlevel southwesterly
flow, will generate effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt,
supporting organized thunderstorms. While cooling aloft will result
in modestly steep lapse rates, warmer temperatures may linger around
850 mb, leading to capping concerns. Nevertheless, even elevated
storms will pose a risk for hail, and depending on storm mode,
strong wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026