Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper
ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today.
This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the
Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the
remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great
Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to
the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder
temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone
ahead of a weak surface low over central FL. 

...Western FL Peninsula Coastline...
Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over
the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by
70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating,
thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse
rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level
moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles.
Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering
may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated
transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist
offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will
reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will
be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be
added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding
onshore severe potential become clearer.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026