Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

Deep upper-level troughing will be over much of the West through Day
5/Thursday, with the upper low likely tracking from the central
California coast northeast to the northern High Plains. Cyclogenesis
will develop on the central High Plains during mid-week, and a cold
front will move east/south across the Plains late in the week into
the weekend. Upper-level troughing will deepen over the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast mid to late week, with strong
north-northwesterly flow developing on the backside of the trough. A
cold front will push south/east through the eastern/southern US Day
3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday, with areas of dry/breezy post-frontal
conditions following. 

...Central/southern High Plains...
Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds amid downslope flow and
lee troughing is expected on Day 4/Wednesday along/east of the Front
Range in Colorado. Forecast guidance indicates the potential for
isolated showers/thunderstorms on portions of the central High
Plains leaving a relatively narrow corridor where elevated fire
weather conditions may develop on Day 4/Wednesday. There is a low
chance of drier return flow across portions of central/west Texas on
Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday that could yield elevated fire
weather conditions. The potential for elevated fire weather
conditions shifts southward on Day 5/Thursday and again on Day
6/Friday onto the southern High Plains. However, given
recent/forecast rainfall and lack of overlap of forecast
elevated/critical winds/RH, probabilities remain too low for
inclusion.

...Appalachians into Lower Mississippi Valley...
Breezy north-northeast winds may overlap RH approaching elevated
criteria and receptive fuels in portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. This overlap and potential
elevated fire weather conditions may extend into the
southern/central Appalachians as well. Dry/breezy conditions are
likely in portions of Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 5/Thursday and
may continue into Day 6/Friday. While much of the Northeast has had
recent rainfall, some drier pockets remain, but there is low
confidence in elevated/critical winds/RH coinciding with these drier
pockets at this time.

..Nauslar.. 10/12/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...