Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms.

...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...

Modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region to
the east of the upper trough axis oriented from the Great Lakes to
TN Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front will develop
east/southeast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through
the period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary
will maintain 60s F dewpoints, supporting weak to moderate
destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley toward the Hudson Valley
(decreasing across New England). Scattered thunderstorm development
is expected during the afternoon and continuing through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest supercells will be possible, with an
accompanying risk of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or
two where backed low-level winds persist.

Scattered thunderstorm clusters are expected with southwest extent
into southern OH/eastern KY/WV/VA as several shortwave impulses/MCVs
migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern to central
Appalachians. Vertical shear will be weaker further south, but a
moist and unstable airmass could support strong wet microbursts.

...Central High Plains...

The amplified upper ridge will develop eastward toward the High
Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture will be more limited across
eastern CO/NM and vicinity. However, southeasterly low-level flow
near a surface boundary will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across portions of NE toward the Black Hills in SD.
Isolated storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills and
within the low-level warm advection regime with southeast extent
into NE. Supercell wind profiles suggest strong outflow winds and
large hail (some possibly 2+ inch diameter) will be possible. Storm
coverage with southward extent is uncertain, but will maintain the
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for now given a conditionally
supportive environment.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2026