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#729485
Tue 16 Jul 2024 10:33:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 1657MD 1657 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHWEST KS...TX/OK PANHANDLES ![](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1657.png)
Mesoscale Discussion 1657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Southeast CO...northeast NM...southwest KS...TX/OK Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162049Z - 162245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe-wind and isolated hail threat is possible through late afternoon into early evening.
DISCUSSION...Convection developing near the higher terrain of south-central CO into northeast NM has gradually intensified this afternoon, with a recent measured gust of 51 kt at Colorado Springs. Farther east, storms are beginning to develop across parts of southeast CO into the Raton Mesa vicinity. Low-level moisture is generally rather modest across the region, but strong heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg, with some further increase possible into late afternoon. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow along the periphery of an upper ridge over the southern Rockies is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, which may support occasional storm organization.
Initial discrete storms will continue to pose a threat of isolated severe gusts and possibly some hail. With time, increasingly prominent outflow within the initially hot and well-mixed environment will support development of one or more loosely organized clusters, which would move southeastward with some increase in the severe-wind threat into parts of the central/southern High Plains. Watch issuance is possible over parts of the region, if a more organized severe threat appears imminent.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38670512 38800169 37820065 36470076 35000080 34950082 34860235 35000350 36140432 37070460 38670512
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1657.html
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