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#729960
Thu 25 Jul 2024 05:33:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Jul 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook ![](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif) Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND CENTRAL MONTANA...
...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears likely to remain seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight.
...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies remain generally confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one significant short wave trough and embedded low currently progressing inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. This perturbation is forecast to continue slowly across and east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies today into early Friday, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the northern Canadian Prairies (near the northern Alberta/Saskatchewan border vicinity). While ridging to its east and south is likely to be maintained across the northern Great Plains/upper Mississippi Valley into the Southwest, models indicate that it may undergo at least some suppression, with the Southwestern mid-level high center shifting across western Arizona toward northern Baja.
Farther downstream, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to continue slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with the primary embedded short wave digging southeast of the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley, before turning across and offshore of the New England coast. Seasonably high precipitable water content will generally remain confined to portions of the northwestern Gulf coast into lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states, and near the Southwestern international border area.
...Northern Rockies... Near/just ahead of the base of the mid-level short wave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana late this afternoon, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. With forecast soundings suggesting 40-60 degree F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating, a few strong downbursts are possible. Downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to the potential development of localized damaging wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening.
...Arizona... Perhaps aided by forcing associated with a perturbation progressing around the periphery of the mid-level high, thunderstorms appear likely to again initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwestern New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, northeasterly steering flow off the higher terrain toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations appears likely to remain focused across southeastern into adjacent portions of central Arizona, possibly including portions of the Greater Phoenix area.
...Southern Mid Atlantic... Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development today within a plume of seasonably high moisture content across eastern North Carolina and adjacent portions of northeastern South Carolina/southeastern Virginia. With moderate CAPE contributing to vigorous updrafts, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with potentially damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
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