Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over
the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 70-kt westerly
jet streak will advance eastward across MT and ND during peak
heating. In the low-levels, a lee trough will extend southward along
the northern/central Plains, before being overtaken by a cold front
during the evening. 

...Northern and Central Plains...
Within the base of the midlevel trough, strong deep-layer westerly
flow will overspread the northern High Plains during the day. Here,
downslope flow trajectories and diurnal heating will result in a
deeply mixed boundary layer along/west of the lee trough --
characterized by surface temperatures in the middle/upper 70s and
20-25 percent RH. Despite the somewhat marginal RH reductions,
downward transport of the high-momentum flow and a tight pressure
gradient will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The greatest overlap
of these strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels is
expected over parts of eastern MT into west-central ND -- where
Critical highlights are in place. A north-northwesterly surface wind
shift will accompany the frontal passage during the evening hours,
though substantial post-frontal RH recovery is expected.

Farther south along the lee trough into the central Plains, more
substantial downslope warming/drying will yield temperatures in the
lower/middle 80s and 15-20 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions
combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions, given critically dry fuels here as well.

..Weinman.. 05/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...