Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...Central Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing surface low are
still expected across southeastern WY into southern ND and much of
northwestern NE through this afternoon. West winds of 15-20 mph
along with relative humidity in the 15-20% range will support
elevated fire weather conditions as far east as the Sioux Falls area
based on latest model guidance, where an eastward expansion of
Elevated highlights was appropriate. 

...Southeast and Appalachians...
A tightening surface pressure gradient between the low entering the
Upper Midwest and high pressure sliding eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast, will support steady south/southwest sustained
winds of around 10 mph (locally 15 mph) across much of the Southeast
and Appalachians through today. A relatively dry air mass remains in
place with RH falling to as low as 20% during peak afternoon
heating. Fuels remain exceptionally dry and receptive to wildfire
spread with ERC values reaching into the 95th to 99th percentiles
amid an expanding drought. The increased south/southwest flow and
low afternoon RH will support a broad area of elevated fire weather
conditions from the mid MS River Valley to the OH River Valley. An
eastward expansion of Elevated highlights into portions WV, southern
Appalachians and northern GA was warranted based on latest near term
model guidance.

See previous discussion for additional forecast details.

..Williams.. 04/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon. 

...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time. 

...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska. 

...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...