SPC MD 389
MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121919Z - 122115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms with potential to produce severe
hail may gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT.  It is not yet clear
that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue
to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Beneath the belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
overspreading central Texas, deepening convective development is
evident near and west of the I-35 corridor, from the Hill Country
northward into areas just southwest of the Metroplex.  Forcing for
ascent downstream of a jet streak embedded within this regime may be
aiding development, which appears focused within weak
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the northern/northeastern
periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
air.

Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F
appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, aided by
increasing insolation in the wake of early day convection spreading
northeast and east of the region.  Given the strong deep-layer
shear, it appears that a couple of supercell structures with
potential to produce large hail may develop as scattered storms
initiate over the next few hours.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911
            32179832 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0389.html