Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today.  These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over
the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA
through the evening.  Within the base of the trough, an intense
cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose
east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this
afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.  

In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will
migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and
subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening.
An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow
convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front. 
Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead
of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts. 
Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few
stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the
broader rain shield.  A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before
this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it
dissipates by early evening.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning.  While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the
immediate coast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026