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Volcano earthquake report for Wednesday, 2 September 2026
• Moderate mag. 4.0 earthquake - Estado de Oaxaca, Mexico, on Wednesday, Sep ...
• Moderate mag. 4.0 earthquake - Estado de Oaxaca, Mexico, on Wednesday, Sep ...
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Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Webmaster
3 hours ago
000 ACPN50 PHFO 031124 TWOCP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Karina, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN Source: Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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Hurricane Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 28
Webmaster
6 hours ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 000
WTPA44 PHFO 030858
TCDCP4
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026
Lowell's satellite presentation has continued to weaken this
evening, with some thinning of the eyewall convection, though it
remains a formidable hurricane. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates have a wide range, from 102-125 kt. Based on continuity
from the earlier higher NOAA Hurricane Hunter data, the initial
intensity is set to 125 kt. Lowell should remain in a low-shear,
warm-water environment for at least the next few days. While the
new forecast shows no net changes, we expect fluctuations in
intensity both up and down, dependent on nearly impossible to
predict eyewall replacement cycles. Vertical wind shear should
increase some by the end of the forecast period, so a more steady
weakening is shown by that time.
The initial motion remains 270/9 kt. Lowell is being steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this feature
the hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3
days. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by
a complex developing mid- to upper-level trough currently seen in
water vapor imagery near 32N 162W. The feature is forecast to break
the ridge down over the weekend, which should cause Lowell to turn
sharply northward or north-northeastward. However, the details of
this turn are extremely difficult to diagnose at this time frame,
and there is a wide range of possibilities. The new NHC forecast is
a bit left of the last one in a few days time, but ends up very
close to the previous forecast at day 5. Given the large spread,
this is a low-confidence prediction for early next week.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts
are more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine
potential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.
2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good
time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and
supply kit in place.
3. Swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. Depending on the exact track of the
storm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 13.3N 156.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.4N 157.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 13.5N 159.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.6N 160.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 13.7N 161.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 14.0N 162.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 14.5N 163.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 20.2N 162.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake Source: Hurricane Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 28
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Hurricane Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
Webmaster
6 hours ago
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 322
FOPA14 PHFO 030857
PWSCP4
HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26)
BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BARKING SANDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19)
LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
LIHUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
15N 160W 34 X 17(17) 35(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 1(55)
15N 160W 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 160W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30)
20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31)
21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37)
BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15)
BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28)
NIHOA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
NIHOA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 21(67) 2(69)
15N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 2(38)
15N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23)
20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 25(37)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE Source: Hurricane Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
0
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Hurricane Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 28
Webmaster
6 hours ago
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 000
WTPA24 PHFO 030857
TCMCP4
HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 156.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 156.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 155.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.4N 157.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 159.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.6N 160.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 161.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.0N 162.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 162.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 156.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE Source: Hurricane Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 28
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Hurricane Lowell Public Advisory Number 28
Webmaster
6 hours ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 000
WTPA34 PHFO 030857
TCPCP4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026
...LOWELL FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 156.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 156.3 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lowell is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next few days. However, Lowell is expected to remain a
major hurricane for the next several days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
KPHFO.
SURF: Swells generated by Lowell are spreading northward and will
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Blake Source: Hurricane Lowell Public Advisory Number 28
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