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M 4.7 - 85 km W of Petrolia, CA
• M 1.3 - 12 km N of Cabazon, CA
• M 1.3 - 12 km N of Cabazon, CA
• M 1.3 - 12 km N of Cabazon, CA
• M 1.3 - 12 km N of Cabazon, CA
• M 4.3 - 19 km SSW of Roncesvalles, Colombia
• M 4.3 - 19 km SSW of Roncesvalles, Colombia
|
Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 12
Webmaster
3 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231443
TCMEP2
HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.5W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN Source: Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 12
0
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Hurricane Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 14
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 231445
TCDEP1
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Odalys has not changed much in organization since earlier this
morning. The hurricane is producing very deep convection near the
center with most of the convective banding features over the
eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow is limited over the northwestern quadrant.
The advisory intensity is held at 65 kt for now, in agreement
with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a recent DPRINT
objective estimate from UW-CIMSS.
The system continues to move east-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of 070/7 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next 24-48 hours as Odalys is steered by the flow
between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge
extending southwestward from central Mexico. A turn toward the
northeast and then north, on the southeastern side of the trough, is
forecast in a couple of days. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern
becomes ill-defined, and potential interaction with Hurricane Polo
could complicate the track of Odalys late in the forecast period.
The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and
lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance.
Based on the latest Decay-SHIPS model input, Odalys will be
experiencing moderate vertical wind shear for the next 48-72 hours.
Some strengthening is likely while the cyclone traverses
sufficiently warm ocean waters during the next couple of days.
Later in the forecast period, increasing shear and marginal SSTs ar
expected to bring about a weakening trend. The official intensity
forecast is at the high end of the objective guidance. This is
similar to the previous NHC prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch Source: Hurricane Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 14
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Hurricane Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 231445
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
15N 125W 34 2 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH Source: Hurricane Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
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Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory Number 14
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 000
WTPZ31 KNHC 231444
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
...ODALYS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 127.9W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 127.9 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected
for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward
the northeast then north later this week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch Source: Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory Number 14
0
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Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion Number 12
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231444
TCDEP2
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Polo is continuing to
undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with infrared imagery showing
multiple rings of cold tops near and around the center. Overall,
the hurricane is not as intense as it was 24 h ago, as the eye has
become less distinct and the eyewall cloud tops have warmed. The
various satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and
based on this trend the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 130 kt. Outer rainbands in the northeastern semicircle
have reached the coast of Mexico.
Polo is starting its forecast turn toward the northwest with the
initial motion now 325/4 kt. Water vapor imagery suggests a
mid-level ridge is building over Texas and Mexico, and the
dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north
of Polo for the next 2-3 days. This evolution should result in Polo
moving northwestward and then west-northwestward with some increase
in forward speed. The forecast becomes more uncertain after 60-72
h. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to the north to weaken
around that time as a mid-latitude trough moves into the western
United States. There is also the possibility of interaction with
Hurricane Odalys to the west. The guidance becomes divergent by
120 h, with the GFS/HCCA/Google DeepMind/Florida State
Superensemble showing a northward motion close to Baja California,
while the regional hurricane models/UKMET/Canadian show a
northwestward motion farther away from Baja. The track forecast
goes with the northward motion scenario, but there is a significant
amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast.
The trends of the intensity forecast guidance suggest that Polo
could weaken a little during the next day or so, followed by
re-intensification during the ensuing 24 h. The first two days of
the intensity forecast follow these trends, and there could be
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles
superimposed on top of this overall trend. After 48 h, the
environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly
stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The
guidance forecast slow weakening during this time, and the new
intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is near the upper
edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope.
While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer
rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next
day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force
winds.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven Source: Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion Number 12
0
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Hurricane Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 14
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
WTPZ21 KNHC 231444
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 127.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH Source: Hurricane Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 14
0
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Hurricane Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 231443
PWSEP2
HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
15N 105W 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 100W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) 1(27)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 72(72) 11(83) X(83)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 17(54) X(54)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 1(35)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN Source: Hurricane Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
0
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Hurricane Polo Public Advisory Number 12
Webmaster
4 hours ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231443
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
...POLO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 101.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.8 West. Polo is now moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward
motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although it is
forecast to remain offshore.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Beven Source: Hurricane Polo Public Advisory Number 12
0
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Webmaster
6 hours ago
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231152 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa, has formed about 600 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): A low pressure system, formerly Tropical Storm Fay, is located about 800 miles southwest of the Azores. Shower activity associated with the low has increased this morning. However, significant re-development of this system is unlikely while it moves generally westward over the next couple of days. By the weekend, increasingly strong upper-level winds should inhibit re-development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Webmaster
7 hours ago
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231149 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of southern Mexico, on recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on recently re-formed Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header TCPCP2. Forecast/Advisoires on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header TCMCP2. $$ Forecaster Blake Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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