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Re: invf Pakistan fails to achieve polio-free target in 2018
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SPC MD 781
Webmaster
8 hours ago
SPC MD 781MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 190310Z - 190445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase over northern OK over the next few hours as storms back-build southwestward along a southward drifting cold front. Severe gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail or a tornado are possible. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Robust multicellular convection, with a history of measured severe gusts, has been steadily back-building west-southwestward along and immediately behind a southward sagging cold front. Despite weak upper support, strong low-level convergence has been supporting persistent convective development, especially given a 50 kt southerly low-level jet bisecting the cold front nearly perpendicularly. Ahead of the front, upper 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates are yielding 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per the 00Z OUN/LMN soundings and 02Z mesoanalysis. These same data sources also depict sizeable low-level hodographs with 300 m2/s2 effective SRH and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, the ambient environment clearly supports severe potential.
The primary uncertainty is how far southwest convection will initiate along the southward-sagging front, and the timing for storms to propagate into OK. The current thinking is that storms capable of severe gusts will eventually propagate southward into north-central and northeast OK. An instance or two of severe hail could accompany the stronger storm cores, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if a robust updraft can outpace the cold front. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for convective propagation into OK.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36779919 36929821 36999709 36969623 36739582 36449572 36099589 35879664 35809745 35909809 36089856 36429904 36779919
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0781.html
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SPC MD 780
Webmaster
8 hours ago
SPC MD 780MD 0780 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 225...227... FOR EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0780 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Areas affected...eastern Kansas...northwest Missouri...southern Iowa
Concerning...Tornado Watch 225...227...
Valid 190154Z - 190500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 225, 227 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe winds are likely along the length of an extensive squall line extending from central Iowa across western Missouri and into south-central/eastern Kansas. Isolated/brief tornadoes may still occur from eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
DISCUSSION...Storms have largely consolidated into a squall line this evening, with various bowing segments with the line. One such segment is evident over northeast KS, with another moving across northern MO. The nearly north-south orientation of these segments is more favorable for significant wind damage as the leading outflow remains in balance/closer to the storms.
The most favorable combination of low-level shear and instability currently extends from eastern KS into western MO, just ahead of the squall line and beneath the 55 kt low-level jet. The EAX VWP indicates 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH which may support periodic QLCS tornado potential.
Farther southwest into south-central KS, echoes are training slowly, with robust cores producing hail at times. Measured severe gusts over 50 kt have occurred here as well, and these storms should maintain strength as the low-level jet persists directly in from the south.
..Jewell.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39719315 38779344 38219410 37559585 37379804 37459838 37609834 38089698 38219662 38559603 39179554 39819481 40269471 40599437 40779427 41129370 41599333 41959315 42249265 42229242 41949226 40759250 39719315
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0780.html
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SPC Tornado Watch 227 Status Reports
Webmaster
9 hours ago
SPC Tornado Watch 227 Status ReportsWW 0227 Status Updates 
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E HUT TO 15 W EMP TO 25 SSE TOP TO 15 NW OJC TO 10 ESE FLV TO 10 SE STJ.
..JEWELL..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-077-079-091-095-103- 107-111-121-125-139-173-191-205-207-209-190340-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JOHNSON KINGMAN LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY OSAGE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE
MOC013-025-033-037-047-049-083-095-101-107-117-159-177-195- 190340-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0227.html
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SPC Tornado Watch 227
Webmaster
9 hours ago
SPC Tornado Watch 227WW 227 TORNADO KS MO 182310Z - 190600Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of East-Central and Southeast Kansas West-Central Missouri
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 610 PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of supercell thunderstorms is currently ongoing along and ahead of a cold front that extends from northeast into central KS. This line of storms is expected to continue eastward/southeastward this evening, into an environment that will remain supportive of a continued risk for all severe hazards. Any discrete storms ahead of the line could pose a risk for a strong tornado, with line-embedded tornadoes possible as well. There is some potential for the development of several embedded bowing clusters, which could result in corridors of 65 to 75 mph wind gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west of Wichita KS to 25 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 222...WW 224...WW 225...WW 226...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0227.html
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228
Webmaster
9 hours ago
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228WW 228 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 190230Z - 190900Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 930 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northeast Missouri
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 930 PM until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently ongoing from central Iowa through north-central/northwest Missouri is expected to continue eastward/southeastward this evening. Environmental conditions support a continued risk of damaging gusts. A low-probability threat for brief line-embedded tornadoes is possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Cedar Rapids IA to 15 miles south southwest of Jefferson City MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 227...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0228.html
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SPC Tornado Watch 225 Status Reports
Webmaster
9 hours ago
SPC Tornado Watch 225 Status ReportsWW 0225 Status Updates 
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW FLV TO 10 W STJ TO 35 NE STJ TO 25 W LWD TO 20 SW DSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
..JEWELL..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-099-117-123-125-127-135-157-159-171-175-179- 181-185-190340-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
KSC005-190340-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON
MOC003-021-061-063-075-079-081-129-227-190340-
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0225.html
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