|
|
|
0 members (),
766
guests, and
31
robots. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
|
30
|
31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There are no members with birthdays on this day. |
Small tremor of magnitude 2.8 just reported 20 km northeast of Groningen, Netherlands
|
SPC MD 2113
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC MD 2113MD 2113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY 
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Areas affected...southeast Alabama and the central Florida Panhandle into the lower Savannah River Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241653Z - 241930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts are possible with thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the expected limited coverage of the threat.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and lightning data indicate a gradually deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the region and along evolving sea breeze boundaries. The 12Z observed soundings across the region sampled a very moist boundary layer, contributing to a strongly unstable air mass for elevated parcels. Since those observations, surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of appreciable large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to limit the potential for an organized thunderstorm complex to evolve. However, the degree of instability will support vigorous pulse storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.
..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30868588 31358570 31528442 31448288 31888186 32778085 32708046 32388034 31338103 30408133 29888190 29848296 29838396 29938516 30248568 30868588
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2113.html
0
17
Read More
|
SPC MD 2114
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC MD 2114MD 2114 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MAINE 
Mesoscale Discussion 2114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Areas affected...northern Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241752Z - 242015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail appear possible this afternoon into evening. A watch is currently not expected.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vigorous vorticity maximum centered over the Champlain Valley, visible satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus across the discussion area amidst a warming and destabilizing air mass with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Eventual thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon as height falls/cooling aloft overspread the warming boundary layer, contributing to further air mass destabilization. The kinematic environment features strong mid/upper-level winds, resulting in long, straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells with an associated hail risk. Isolated damaging wind gusts also appear possible owing to the steepening low-level lapse rates across the region, which will enhance evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer.
..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 45467106 47446963 47736870 47486768 46866764 45666891 44967003 44617055 44707100 45467106
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2114.html
0
18
Read More
|
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622WW 622 SEVERE TSTM AL FL LA MS CW 241735Z - 250000Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Southern Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Southeast Louisiana Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Small clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon across the Watch area and gradually move towards the coast. The stronger thunderstorms will pose a risk for wet microbursts capable of 55 to 65 mph gusts and scattered wind damage.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of New Orleans LA to 35 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 34015.
...Smith
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0622.html
0
17
Read More
|
SPC Aug 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC Aug 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook  Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis... Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS Valley.
...Portions of the central Plains... Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day, with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected (given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle.
...Parts of the Upper MS Valley... By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode, accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards.
...Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast... Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet microbursts capable of producing wind damage.
..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
0
16
Read More
|
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Webmaster
5 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
A passing mid-level wave will induce periods of locally elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Klamath River Basin today. RH values may decline to less than 15% with wind gusts over 20 mph in terrain favored areas; however, spatial extent and duration of these conditions will be limited, precluding the introduction of highlights.
Based on the latest guidance and observations, only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area in the northern Great Basin and Elevated highlights in the southern Plains. Please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026/
...Synopsis... A subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave will move northeastward across parts of the northern Great Basin today. Farther south, a separate shortwave trough will track southeastward across the central/southern Plains -- along the northeastern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered on the southern Rockies. In response to this feature, a surface low will evolve slowly eastward across parts of OK.
...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing beneath a well-established midlevel moisture plume will contribute to weak surface-based destabilization across parts of the northern Great Basin today. As large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel wave overspreads this instability, isolated high-based thunderstorms will track northeastward across the area. The deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V profiles) and 25-30 mph storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions -- given receptive fuels.
...Southern Plains... Along/behind the evolving surface low, a dry air mass (15-20 percent RH) will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/breezy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels (95th+ percentile ERCs) will yield elevated fire-weather conditions during the late morning and afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
0
15
Read More
|
|
Forums60
Topics801,062
Posts835,853
Members2,960
| |
Most Online102,106 Jul 10th, 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|