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Small magnitude 3.8 earthquake 26 miles northeast of Fitzroy Crossing, Western Australia, Australia
Webmaster
2 hours ago
Small magnitude 3.8 earthquake 26 miles northeast of Fitzroy Crossing, Western Australia, Australia A shallow magnitude 3.8 earthquake was reported early morning near Fitzroy Crossing, Derby-West Kimberley, Western Australia, Australia. According to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), the quake hit on Tuesday, May 12th, 2026, at 2:09 am local time at a shallow depth of 10.6 miles. Shallow earthquakes are felt more strongly than deeper ones as they are closer to the surface. The exact magnitude, epicenter, and depth of the quake might be revised within the next few hours or minutes as seismologists review data and refine their calculations, or as other agencies issue their report. Our monitoring service identified a second report from the citizen-seismograph network of RaspberryShake which listed the quake at magnitude 3.8 as well. A third agency, Geoscience Australia (GeoAu), reported the same quake at magnitude 3.8. Towns or cities near the epicenter where the quake might have been felt as very weak shaking include Fitzroy Crossing (pop. 1,800) located 26 miles from the epicenter.
Earthquake data: Date & time: May 12, 2026 02:09 am (GMT +8) local time (11 May 2026 18:09 GMT)Magnitude: 3.8 Depth: 17.00 km Epicenter latitude / longitude: 17.83°S / 125.66°E  ( Derby-West Kimberley, Australia) Primary data source: EMSChttps://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquake/news/302106/Small-magnitude-38-earthquake-26-miles-northeast-of-Fitzroy-Crossing-Western-Australia-Australia.html
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World Earthquake Report for Monday, 11 May 2026
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2 hours ago
World Earthquake Report for Monday, 11 May 2026 Worldwide earthquakes above magnitude 3 during the past 24 hours on 11 May 2026 Summary: 7 quakes 5.0+, 38 quakes 4.0+, 150 quakes 3.0+, 363 quakes 2.0+ (558 total)This report is being updated every hour.Magnitude 5+: 7 earthquakes Magnitude 4+: 38 earthquakes Magnitude 3+: 150 earthquakes Magnitude 2+: 363 earthquakes No quakes of magnitude 6 or higher 10 largest earthquakes in the world (past 24 hours)Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 10:34 pm (Santiago time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 11:19 am (GMT +12) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 08:48 pm (Guadalcanal time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 12:15 pm (GMT +13) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 12:20 pm (GMT +13) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 10:41 am (GMT +9) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 02:06 am (Yangon time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 07:16 am (Guadalcanal time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 09:21 am (GMT +9) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 07:52 pm (GMT -5) - Earthquakes reported feltMonday, May 11, 2026, at 11:59 am (GMT +2) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 03:55 pm (GMT -7) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 08:48 pm (Guadalcanal time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 12:28 am (GMT +2) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 10:29 pm (Athens time) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 11:22 am (GMT -7) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 04:06 pm (GMT +3) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 01:35 am (Santiago time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 02:06 am (Yangon time) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 10:41 am (GMT +9) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 03:54 pm (GMT +8) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 02:16 pm (GMT +8) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 09:21 am (GMT +9) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 11:24 am (GMT -7) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 11:57 pm (GMT +8) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 07:12 pm (GMT +2) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 07:56 pm (GMT -7) - #18: Mag 4.8 Argentina - 2 reportsMonday, May 11, 2026, at 01:14 pm (Santiago time) - Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 07:52 pm (GMT -5) - Monday, May 11, 2026, at 07:36 am (GMT +8) - Earthquake stats  https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquake/news/302078/World-Earthquake-Report-for-Monday-11-May-2026.html
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World Earthquake Report for May 2026
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2 hours ago
World Earthquake Report for May 2026 Worldwide earthquakes above magnitude 5.5 during May 2026 Summary: 2 quakes 6.0+, 45 quakes 5.0+, 468 quakes 4.0+, 2127 quakes 3.0+, 4288 quakes 2.0+ (6930 total)This report is being updated every day.Magnitude 9+: none Magnitude 8+: none Magnitude 7+: none Magnitude 6+: 2 earthquakes Magnitude 5+: 45 earthquakes Magnitude 4+: 468 earthquakes Magnitude 3+: 2127 earthquakes Magnitude 2+: 4288 earthquakes No quakes of magnitude 7 or higher List of 10 largest earthquakes in the world during May 2026:Friday, May 1, 2026, at 08:39 pm (Taipei time) - Saturday, May 2, 2026, at 06:28 pm (GMT +9) - Earthquake stats:  https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/view_news/301287/World-Earthquake-Report-for-May-2026.html
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Volcano earthquake report for Monday, 11 May 2026
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2 hours ago
Volcano earthquake report for Monday, 11 May 2026 World map showing volcanoes with shallow (less than 50 km) earthquakes within 20 km radius during the past 24 hours on 11 May 2026 Number in brackets indicate nr of quakes. Quakes detected near: Askja (10 quakes between mag 0.0-1.1), Bardarbunga (27 quakes between mag 0.0-2.1), Bibinoi (1 quake mag 2.9), Churchill (1 quake mag 1.2), Clear Lake (28 quakes between mag 0.3-2.4), Dofen (1 quake mag 4.3) El Chichón (1 quake mag 2.1), Gagak (1 quake mag 2.5), Geureudong (1 quake mag 2.1), Hekla (2 quakes between mag 0.3-1.0), Hengill (1 quake mag 1.3), Hrómundartindur (4 quakes between mag 0.7-1.2), Hulubelu (1 quake mag 2.0), Iriga (1 quake mag 3.0), Katla (4 quakes between mag 0.2-1.1), Kilauea (1 quake mag 2.7), Kupreanof (2 quakes between mag 1.5-2.5), Mammoth Mountain (2 quakes between mag 0.9-1.5), Maunaloa (1 quake mag 1.9), Natib (1 quake mag 3.0), Paco (2 quakes between mag 1.4-3.3), Pelée (9 quakes between mag 0.0-1.0), Platanar (3 quakes between mag 1.5-2.2), Prestahnukur (17 quakes between mag 0.5-2.9), Ruapehu (2 quakes between mag 0.9-1.1), Stepovak Bay 4 (3 quakes between mag 1.7-2.6), Svartsengi (3 quakes between mag 0.1-1.2), Tjörnes Fracture Zone (5 quakes between mag 0.6-1.6), Whale Island (1 quake mag 2.1), Öraefajökull (2 quakes between mag 0.3-1.1) (updated 17h50) Note: Earthquakes within 20 km from and at depths less than 50 km under active volcanoes are reported. The list is not complete because many volcanoes are not monitored and/or seismic data in high resolution is not available publicly.
Volcanoes with recent earthquakes above magnitude 2 or more than 10 quakes are listed below:
Bardarbunga volcano (Iceland): 27 earthquakes up to magnitude 2.1Possible earthquake swarm: 27 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 16 hours, the last being recorded quake 43 minutes ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 15.50 and 0.00 km. Earthquake details: (only 5 largest) 2.1 quake Iceland: 8.2 km SE of Bárðarbunga May 11, 2026 03:23 pm (Reykjavik time) (8 km SE) 2.0 quake 3.9 km SE of Bárðarbunga May 11, 2026 01:34 am (Universal Time) (3 km ESE) 1.8 quake Iceland: 4.2 km NW of Bárðarbunga May 11, 2026 10:39 am (Reykjavik time) (5 km NNW) 1.1 quake 0.6 km W of Bárðarbunga May 11, 2026 10:14 am (Universal Time) (1 km NNW) 1.1 quake 4.4 km SSE of Bárðarbunga May 11, 2026 06:14 am (Universal Time) (3 km SE) All earthquakes at BardarbungaBibinoi volcano (Halmahera): magnitude 2.9 earthquakeA magnitude 2.9 earthquake occurred at the volcano 7 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 14.00 km depth at 18 km distance WNW from the volcano. Earthquake details: 2.9 quake 13 km southeast of Labuha, Kabupaten Halmahera Selatan, North Maluku, Indonesia, May 11, 2026 07:57 pm (GMT +9) (18 km WNW) All earthquakes at BibinoiClear Lake volcano (California): 28 earthquakes up to magnitude 2.4Possible earthquake swarm: 28 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 23 hours, the last being recorded quake 28 minutes ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 11.32 and 0.47 km. Earthquake details: (only 5 largest) 2.4 quake 27 mi north of Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California, United States, May 10, 2026 01:00 pm (GMT -7) (18 km SSW) 1.6 quake Sonoma County, 13 mi southwest of Clearlake, Lake County, California, United States, May 11, 2026 12:29 am (GMT -7) (16 km SSW) 1.4 quake 28 mi north of Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California, United States, May 11, 2026 05:28 am (GMT -7) (15 km S) 1.3 quake 27 mi north of Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California, United States, May 10, 2026 09:37 pm (GMT -7) (16 km SSW) 1.3 quake Lake County, 28 mi north of Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California, United States, May 11, 2026 03:23 am (GMT -7) (15 km S) All earthquakes at Clear LakeDofen volcano (Ethiopia): magnitude 4.3 earthquakeA magnitude 4.3 earthquake occurred at the volcano 20 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 10.00 km depth at 12 km distance W from the volcano. Earthquake details: 4.3 quake 44 km north of Awash, Afar Region, Ethiopia, May 11, 2026 01:01 am (GMT +3) (12 km W) All earthquakes at DofenDofen mountain is the highest peak of an active volcano in the Ethiopian rift valley at the northern end of the Awash National park. It consists of overlapping old and geologic younger cones, craters and lava flows, some of which have been erupted probably less than a few thousand years ago. Since Dec 2024, it has been showing strong signs of unrest as a magma intrusion is taking place. El Chichón volcano (Southern Mexico): magnitude 2.1 earthquakeA magnitude 2.1 earthquake occurred at the volcano 14 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 3.30 km depth at 2 km distance WSW from the volcano. Earthquake details: 2.1 quake Estado de Chiapas, 39 km southwest of Teapa, Estado de Tabasco, Mexico, May 10, 2026 10:00 pm (GMT -6) (2 km WSW) All earthquakes at El ChichónGagak volcano (West Java): magnitude 2.5 earthquakeA magnitude 2.5 earthquake occurred at the volcano 19 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 5.00 km depth at 0 km distance S from the volcano. Earthquake details: 2.5 quake Bogor Regency, 16 km west of Cicurug, Kabupaten Sukabumi, Jawa Barat, Indonesia, May 11, 2026 05:56 am (GMT +7) (0 km S) All earthquakes at GagakGeureudong volcano (Sumatra): magnitude 2.1 earthquakeA magnitude 2.1 earthquake occurred at the volcano 9 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 5.00 km depth at 4 km distance SW from the volcano. Earthquake details: 2.1 quake Kabupaten Bener Meriah, 53 km south of Bireun, Indonesia, May 11, 2026 04:10 pm (GMT +7) (4 km SW) All earthquakes at GeureudongIriga volcano (Luzon Island): magnitude 3.0 earthquakeA magnitude 3.0 earthquake occurred at the volcano 13 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 10.00 km depth at 16 km distance WSW from the volcano. Earthquake details: Reported seismic-like event (likely no quake): 27 km southeast of Naga, Province of Camarines Sur, Bicol, Philippines, May 11, 2026 12:52 pm (GMT +8) (16 km WSW) All earthquakes at IrigaKilauea volcano (Hawai'i (Big Island)): magnitude 2.7 earthquakeA magnitude 2.7 earthquake occurred at the volcano 13 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 5.63 km depth at 14 km distance W from the volcano. Earthquake details: 2.7 quake 32 mi southwest of Hilo, Hawaii County, Hawaii, United States, May 10, 2026 07:11 pm (GMT -10) (14 km W) All earthquakes at KilaueaKupreanof volcano (Alaska Peninsula): 2 earthquakes up to magnitude 2.52 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 4 hours, the last being recorded quake 15 hours ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 5.60 and 5.00 km. Earthquake details: 2.5 quake 52 mi northeast of Sand Point, Aleutians East Borough, Alaska, United States, May 10, 2026 02:26 pm (GMT -8) (5 km W) 1.5 quake 55 mi northeast of Sand Point, Aleutians East Borough, Alaska, United States, May 10, 2026 06:26 pm (GMT -8) (3 km NNW) All earthquakes at KupreanofNatib volcano (Luzon Island): magnitude 3.0 earthquakeA magnitude 3.0 earthquake occurred at the volcano 5 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 10.00 km depth at 18 km distance NW from the volcano. Earthquake details: Reported seismic-like event (likely no quake): 1.3 km southwest of Olongapo, Province of Zambales, Central Luzon, Philippines, May 11, 2026 08:23 pm (GMT +8) (18 km NW) All earthquakes at NatibPaco volcano (Mindanao): 2 earthquakes up to magnitude 3.32 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 2 hours, the last being recorded quake 18 hours ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 33.00 and 5.00 km. Earthquake details: 3.3 quake 13 km south of Surigao, Province of Surigao del Norte, Caraga, Philippines, May 11, 2026 07:36 am (GMT +8) (12 km NW) 1.4 quake Philippine Sea, 14 km southwest of Hinatuan Island, Philippines, May 11, 2026 05:14 am (GMT +8) (16 km NE) All earthquakes at PacoPlatanar volcano (Costa Rica): 3 earthquakes up to magnitude 2.23 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 4 hours, the last being recorded quake 6 hours ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 2.00 and 0.00 km. Earthquake details: 2.2 quake 7.9 km southeast of Quesada, Provincia de Alajuela, Costa Rica, May 11, 2026 05:42 am (Costa_Rica time) (6 km SW) 1.6 quake 11 km south of Quesada, Provincia de Alajuela, Costa Rica, May 11, 2026 01:17 am (Costa_Rica time) (8 km SSW) 1.5 quake 10.8 km south of Quesada, Provincia de Alajuela, Costa Rica, May 11, 2026 01:36 am (Costa_Rica time) (8 km SSW) All earthquakes at PlatanarPrestahnukur volcano (Iceland): 17 earthquakes up to magnitude 2.9Possible earthquake swarm: 17 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 22 hours, the last being recorded quake 28 minutes ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 17.50 and 0.80 km. Earthquake details: (only 5 largest) 2.9 quake West, 71 km northeast of Reykjavik, Capital Region, Iceland, May 11, 2026 02:24 pm (Reykjavik time) (12 km WSW) 1.8 quake 15.1 km SSE of Húsafell May 10, 2026 07:03 pm (Universal Time) (12 km WSW) 1.7 quake 15.8 km SSE of Húsafell May 10, 2026 08:50 pm (Universal Time) (12 km WSW) 1.5 quake Iceland: 15.1 km S of Húsafell May 11, 2026 12:29 am (Reykjavik time) (13 km WSW) 1.5 quake Iceland: 16.5 km N of Skjaldbreið May 11, 2026 05:21 pm (Reykjavik time) (10 km SW) All earthquakes at PrestahnukurStepovak Bay 4 volcano (Alaska Peninsula): 3 earthquakes up to magnitude 2.63 earthquakes occurred near (under) the volcano during 15 hours, the last being recorded quake 3 hours ago. Hypocenter depths ranged between 9.80 and 5.00 km. Earthquake details: 2.6 quake 52 mi northeast of Sand Point, Aleutians East Borough, Alaska, United States, May 11, 2026 07:08 am (GMT -8) (6 km N) 1.8 quake 49 mi northeast of Sand Point, Aleutians East Borough, Alaska, United States, May 10, 2026 10:30 pm (GMT -8) (1 km NNE) 1.7 quake 48 mi northeast of Sand Point, Aleutians East Borough, Alaska, United States, May 10, 2026 04:30 pm (GMT -8) (2 km E) All earthquakes at Stepovak Bay 4Whale Island volcano (New Zealand): magnitude 2.1 earthquakeA magnitude 2.1 earthquake occurred at the volcano 15 hours ago. The quake, which might be volcanic in origin, was located at a depth of 4.50 km depth at 10 km distance SSW from the volcano. Earthquake details: 2.1 quake 6.2 km northwest of Whakatane, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, May 11, 2026 02:48 pm (GMT +12) (10 km SSW) All earthquakes at Whale Islandhttps://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes-volcanoes/news/302071/Volcano-earthquake-report-for-Monday-11-May-2026.html
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SPC May 11, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
3 hours ago
SPC May 11, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook  Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN INDIANA AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois, northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin. Additional storms capable of damaging winds will be possible across the eastern Florida peninsula.
... Overview ...
The midlevel pattern will further amplify on Tuesday with a negatively tilted tough moving onshore in the Pacific northwest. This trough will aid the amplification of a downstream ridge over the Rockies, and the amplification of this ridge will support the subsequent downstream amplification of a trough over the eastern US. Embedded within the eastern US trough, a closed midlevel low will migrate southeast from Canada at the start of the period to being over the Upper Great Lakes by the end. At the same time, a weak midlevel vorticity maximum will weaken as it moves east across the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula as it is absorbed into the larger scale longwave trough.
At the surface, a remnant cold front will continue slowly sagging south across the Florida Peninsula as a weak low/associated MCS moves across the state from west to east. Farther north and west, another low will move east from the Northern Plains across central Wisconsin into Lower Michigan. As this occurs, strengthening lower-tropospheric northerly flow across the central US will push a cold front south across the central US.
... Southeast Kansas/Northern Oklahoma into Southern Wisconsin and Northwest Indiana ...
Southerly low-level flow will attempt to transport Gulf moisture northward into the Central Plains northeast into the Upper Great Lakes during the morning and early afternoon. This will occur along the western periphery of an eastern US anticyclone and ahead of south/southeast moving cold front. Atop this moisture return, large-scale subsidence associated with the eastern portions of the midlevel ridge across the Rockies will support warming lower tropospheric temperatures. These warm low level temperatures will provide a cap across the central US which should inhibit thunderstorm development for much of the day and promote uninterrupted northward moisture advection. The result will be surface dewpoints rising into perhaps the low 50Fs as far north as southern Wisconsin by early afternoon.
As diurnal heating warms this modified Gulf airmass, MUCAPE values will struggle to increase to around 1250 J/kg across the southern Central Plains to around 250 J/kg across Wisconsin owing to poor lapse rates from the warm low-to-midlevel temperatures. That said, at least isolated thunderstorms should develop across northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin to the south of the surface low, where surface convergence is greatest along the advancing front. As the eastern US midlevel trough amplifies, the associated midlevel jet will strengthen during the afternoon and evening across the Central Plains. This kinematic profile will support at least a marginal wind threat with any sustained thunderstorm.
To the south and west, slightly better low level moisture will support greater instability, but warmer temperatures aloft and weakening surface convergence will potentially limit thunderstorm coverage. However, a marginal wind and hail threat will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm.
... Eastern Florida Peninsula ...
Numerous thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening associated with the aforementioned sagging front and midlevel wave moving across the region. High precipitable water values, long hodographs within the cloud layer, and tall, skinny buoyancy profiles will support the potential for a couple of wet damaging downbursts with the strongest cores.
... Interior Oregon ...
During the late afternoon and overnight a vigorous, negatively tilted midlevel trough will move into the area. Although low levels will remain very dry, increasing midlevel moisture and midlevel instability may be sufficient for a couple of thunderstorms. A very dry sub-cloud layer and strong 700-500 millibar flow may support a couple of isolated damaging wind gusts should thunderstorms develop. Confidence in this scenario is too low to warrant unconditional wind probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 05/11/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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SPC MD 704
Webmaster
3 hours ago
SPC MD 704MD 0704 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS 
Mesoscale Discussion 0704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Areas affected...portions of the coastal Carolinas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111643Z - 111845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the coastal Carolinas.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is ongoing ahead of a weak surface low analyzed east of Florence, SC, with additional agitated cumulus noted on the seaward side of the coastal sea breeze across portions of the Crystal Coast southward to near Charleston, SC. While mid-level lapse rates remain poor (as sampled by the 12z MHX/CHS observed soundings), continued diurnal heating amid ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70 F) is aiding in weak destabilization, with latest mesoanalysis and forecast soundings depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Expectation is for convection to gradually increase in coverage along the sea breeze and ahead of the approaching front as lingering inhibition continues to erode.
Strong westerly flow aloft downstream of an approaching upper-level trough is supporting 35-45+ kts of effective bulk shear, which is sufficient to promote updraft organization into multicells and perhaps marginal supercell structures. Some potential for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will accompany more robust updrafts, with the greatest potential expected on the coastal side of the sea breeze where greater low-level moisture may favor locally stronger buoyancy. The given the expectation for the severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch issuance is not expected at this time.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...CHS...
LAT...LON 32547991 32628014 32998026 33567976 34247880 34837748 35207647 35357567 35297544 35137541 35007568 34797613 34497645 34537687 34357737 34007770 33757783 33677849 33477885 33147908 32807938 32677963 32547991
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0704.html
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SPC MD 705
Webmaster
3 hours ago
SPC MD 705MD 0705 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Atlantic coastline of the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111714Z - 111915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail this afternoon, with the greatest potential expected primarily along the Atlantic coastline of the Florida Peninsula.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating of a moist low-level air mass (as sampled by the 12z TBW observed sounding) is contributing to moderate to locally strong instability across much of the Florida Peninsula, with latest mesoanalysis depicting MLCAPE ranging from around 1500 J/kg to 2500+ J/kg. Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon, with westerly effective shear of 35-45 kts supporting organized updrafts. In a similar scenario to yesterday, a combination of multicells and marginal supercell structures will be possible. With PWAT values of 1.75+ inches, water loading will promote the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger downdrafts. Isolated large hail will also be possible with more robust updrafts.
The greatest severe potential is expected along the Atlantic coastline, where greater low-level moisture seaward of the east-coast sea breeze will support greater buoyancy through the afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time owing to the forecast limited magnitude and coverage of the severe risk, but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 26218001 26198028 26318064 26748103 28348157 28868176 29238188 29598198 29898196 30048189 30178167 30178141 30048121 29728105 29048069 28608041 28328045 27878034 27248004 26907993 26437990 26218001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0705.html
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
...Northern and Central Plains... A deepening lee trough across far eastern MT under a 60-70 knot mid-level jet will contribute to fire weather concerns across portions of the northern and central Plains through today. Stronger south winds of 15-20 mph ahead of the eastward moving surface trough are occurring over the Dakotas, with latest model guidance suggesting this steady southerly flow being maintained through the day. RH is trending lower with potential for broader instances of 20-25% by peak afternoon heating, particularly across eastern ND and the Red River Valley of the North. Elevated Highlights have been extended eastward to encompass all of ND and portions of western MN today.
Farther west in the wake of the departing trough, dry and breezy conditions including west/northwest winds 20-25 mph combined with afternoon RH of 15-25% and dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions for portions of northeastern MT into west-central ND. A slight eastward expansion of Critical Highlights further into ND was made based on latest surface observation and forecast guidance trends.
..Williams.. 05/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/
...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 70-kt westerly jet streak will advance eastward across MT and ND during peak heating. In the low-levels, a lee trough will extend southward along the northern/central Plains, before being overtaken by a cold front during the evening.
...Northern and Central Plains... Within the base of the midlevel trough, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern High Plains during the day. Here, downslope flow trajectories and diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer along/west of the lee trough -- characterized by surface temperatures in the middle/upper 70s and 20-25 percent RH. Despite the somewhat marginal RH reductions, downward transport of the high-momentum flow and a tight pressure gradient will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The greatest overlap of these strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels is expected over parts of eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. A north-northwesterly surface wind shift will accompany the frontal passage during the evening hours, though substantial post-frontal RH recovery is expected.
Farther south along the lee trough into the central Plains, more substantial downslope warming/drying will yield temperatures in the lower/middle 80s and 15-20 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given critically dry fuels here as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
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SPC May 11, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC May 11, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ITO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis... Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and adjacent southern Saskatchewan.
Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from this low across eastern into south-central MT.
...Eastern SC/Far Southern NC... Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity. A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC. Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts.
...Eastern FL... Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.
...Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD... Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.
...Coastal LA/MS/AL... The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as well.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/11/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
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