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SPC MD 387
Webmaster
Yesterday at 07:21 PM
SPC MD 387MD 0387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS 
Mesoscale Discussion 0387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121752Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development may persist into the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, perhaps accompanied by some risk for a brief tornado, and a few strong surface gusts before storms diminish.
DISCUSSION...Moderate southerly return flow persists across the middle Texas coastal plain, near the southern periphery of a belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow extending from south of the Texas Big Bend through the southeastern Great Plains. One short wave impulse embedded within this regime now appears to be shifting across/northwest of the Ark-La-Texas vicinity, with perhaps an even more subtle perturbation/associated speed maximum still upstream and forecast to propagate across central Texas through mid to late afternoon.
Likely aided by inflow of moist boundary-layer characterized by surface dew points around 70F, which appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, vigorous convective development to the north-northwest of Victoria has been exhibiting transient supercell structure the past couple of hours. This appears to focused near a lingering 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet axis, which various model output suggests may still undergo some strengthening into mid/late afternoon. As this occurs, the aforementioned convection and trailing storms developing to the southwest may undergo further intensification and upscale growth.
This may be accompanied by at least some risk for a brief tornado. With forecast soundings indicating near saturated profiles through a fairly deep surface-based layer, the risk for damaging wind gusts may be initially hindered, but, with time, this potential could gradually increase with heavy precipitation loading and further upscale convective growth.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28349792 29269779 30349679 30349626 29909574 29159676 28349792
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0387.html
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SPC MD 388
Webmaster
Yesterday at 07:21 PM
SPC MD 388MD 0388 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO EASTERN IDAHO...FAR WESTERN WYOMING...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Utah into eastern Idaho...far western Wyoming...extreme southwestern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121840Z - 122045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with the strongest storms that can mature over the next several hours. The severe threat should remain isolated.
DISCUSSION...Clearing skies are supporting boundary-layer mixing/destabilization amid the approach of a 500 mb vort max, resulting in increased lift for convective development. Visible satellite imagery depicts deepening CU, with NLDN lightning data already showing a few lightning flashes in spots. Storms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates amid 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Storms should be mainly multicellular, the strongest of which may be accompanied by occasional strong wind gusts (a few of which may be severe, especially in higher-terrain areas), and perhaps an instance or two of hail. Given the modest speed shear, the severe threat should remain isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...
LAT...LON 41451373 41571385 42281435 42551434 43131422 44151393 44961322 45031241 44951142 44651061 44171030 42791005 41641001 40751026 40321090 40091188 40131251 40511325 41451373
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0388.html
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SPC MD 389
Webmaster
Yesterday at 07:21 PM
SPC MD 389MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS 
Mesoscale Discussion 0389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...parts of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121919Z - 122115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms with potential to produce severe hail may gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. It is not yet clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Beneath the belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading central Texas, deepening convective development is evident near and west of the I-35 corridor, from the Hill Country northward into areas just southwest of the Metroplex. Forcing for ascent downstream of a jet streak embedded within this regime may be aiding development, which appears focused within weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the northern/northeastern periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.
Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, aided by increasing insolation in the wake of early day convection spreading northeast and east of the region. Given the strong deep-layer shear, it appears that a couple of supercell structures with potential to produce large hail may develop as scattered storms initiate over the next few hours.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911 32179832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0389.html
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SPC Apr 12, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 05:29 PM
SPC Apr 12, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook  Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.
...Synopsis... A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.
...Upper Midwest... Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear. An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.
...Central/Southern Plains.... A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F. Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop, the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter).
..Thornton.. 04/12/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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SPC Apr 12, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 04:31 PM
SPC Apr 12, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains... Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation is for development along the southern and western periphery on the ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating, and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s). Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this outlook.
...Northern Rockies... Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
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