No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 06:26:23 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 06:26:23 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 00:17:32 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 00:17:32 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 18:17:15 GMT

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No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 18:14:22 GMT

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No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 12:11:22 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 12:11:22 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 06:06:49 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 06:04:24 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:44 GMT

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No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:44 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

Maximum Temperature: 19°C (66°F), Minimum Temperature: 16°C (60°F), Wind Direction: south-easterly, Wind Speed: 6mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 1010mb, Humidity: 90%, UV Risk: 1, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 07:30 BST, Sunset: 18:20 BST

Source: Monday: Light Rain, Minimum Temperature: 16°C (60°F) Maximum Temperature: 19°C (66°F)

Maximum Temperature: 15°C (58°F), Minimum Temperature: 10°C (50°F), Wind Direction: south-westerly, Wind Speed: 3mph, Visibility: Good, Pressure: 1013mb, Humidity: 73%, UV Risk: 2, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 07:28 BST, Sunset: 18:23 BST

Source: Sunday: Light Cloud, Minimum Temperature: 10°C (50°F) Maximum Temperature: 15°C (58°F)

Maximum Temperature: 13°C (55°F), Minimum Temperature: 7°C (45°F), Wind Direction: westerly, Wind Speed: 14mph, Visibility: Good, Pressure: 1011mb, Humidity: 72%, UV Risk: 2, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 07:26 BST, Sunset: 18:25 BST

Source: Today: Light Rain Showers, Minimum Temperature: 7°C (45°F) Maximum Temperature: 13°C (55°F)

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2026 08:56:40 GMT

Source: Tropical Storm Rachel Graphics

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Oct 10 2026

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100857
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 AM CST Sat Oct 10 2026
 
The very small inner-core of Simon remains very impressive as the
cyclone has continued to strengthen. The proxy-visible imagery has
started to show that the tiny eye of the hurricane is clearing
out.  The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T6.0/115 kt,
while the objective raw T-number intensity estimates  from
UW-CIMSS have ranged from 120 to 132 kt. Based on a blend of the
objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity
has been increased to 125 kt for this advisory.  The wind radii has
been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT pass.
 
The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over
the next day or so, with a peak intensity of 135 kt forecast. Given
the small size of the inner core, there is a higher than normal
degree of uncertainty with the peak intensity. Therefore, it is
possible that Simon could become stronger than what is forecast.
Only a few changes were made for the current NHC forecast compared
to the previous forecast.
 
Simon's initial motion is estimated at 360/4 kt, northward.
The hurricane is being steered by the southerly mid-level flow
produced by high pressure over southern Mexico and a longwave
mid-tropospheric trough to the west stretching south-southwestward
from the southwest United States. There is still some uncertainty
about the track for Simon, as most of the skilled model guidance
including HCCA and GDMI forecast aids have been experiencing to the
left of the track bias. The current NHC track forecast has the
hurricane move inland over the Mexican states of Colima and
Jalisco; however, it is possible that the cyclone could remain just
offshore as it moves generally northward. Should Simon move inland,
then it should dissipate quickly due to the mountainous terrain.
However, if Simon were to stay offshore, then it would maintain
hurricane intensity for a longer period of time. The current track
forecast is similar to the previous one, with only a few small
adjustments being made.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a
Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed
today.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 17.2N 104.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 17.8N 104.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.0N 105.1W  120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0600Z 21.7N 105.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/1800Z 23.1N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts

Source: Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 12

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2026 08:52:03 GMT

Source: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100853
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective organization
has changed little over the past several hours, with the deepest
convection remaining confined to the northern and northeastern
portions of the circulation due to increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear. A 0505 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed peak
winds of around 46 kt and an expanding wind field, which helped
refine the initial wind radii. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 50 kt.
 
The initial motion is northeastward, or 050/19 kt. A turn toward the
north-northeast, accompanied by additional acceleration to around 25
kt, is expected during the next 24 h as Rachel interacts with a
deepening mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.
This motion should bring Rachel ashore just south of the 
U.S./Mexico border tonight, followed by a rapid north-northeastward 
motion into the southwestern United States. Track guidance has 
shifted slightly to the right compared to 24 hours ago, but has 
changed little since the previous cycle. The latest NHC track 
forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction and 
lies close to the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 h
as Rachel accelerates northeastward and interacts with the deepening
upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows Rachel 
strengthening to 55 kt before moving inland tonight. Rachel's wind 
field has also begun to expand, and additional expansion is 
possible as the cyclone accelerates northeastward and
interacts with the upper-level trough. This could result in
tropical-storm-force winds extending farther from the center as
Rachel begins to lose its tropical characteristics. Rachel is
expected to weaken rapidly after landfall as it encounters the
mountainous terrain of northern Baja California and the southwestern
United States. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 36
h and dissipate by 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous prediction and lies near the middle to upper
end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore along the coast of
northern Baja California or extreme Southern California at tropical
storm strength tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of northern Baja California, Mexico, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and
portions of northwestern Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect.
 
2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are
expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior
portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of
higher terrain, tonight and Sunday.
 
3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the
Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula
through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of
rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban
flooding.
 
4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period
southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja
California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in
some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet
above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to
worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated
with Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water
levels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 24.2N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 26.6N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 31.0N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 36.0N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Source: Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 53

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 100852
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  53           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   7( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
TIJUANA        34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ENSENADA       34  X  35(35)  16(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
ENSENADA       50  X   9( 9)  11(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ENSENADA       64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
IS GUADALUPE   34  2  68(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
IS GUADALUPE   50  X  24(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
IS GUADALUPE   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
25N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
25N 120W       50  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
30N 120W       34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS

Source: Tropical Storm Rachel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 100852
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
 
...RACHEL HOLDING STEADY WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 121.4W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border
* East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to
Puerto Penasco
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to
the San Diego/Orange County Line
* East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles
northward to Isla San Luis
* Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California,
and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of
Rachel.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 121.4 West. Rachel is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast, accompanied by an additional increase in
forward speed, is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore near
the U.S./Mexico border tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but
rapid weakening is expected after Rachel moves inland over Baja 
California and the southwestern United States on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of
northern Baja California within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning later today and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch
area in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and
portions of northwest Mexico beginning tonight or early Sunday.
Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread
over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in
areas of higher terrain, later today through early next week.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of
Baja California this weekend.
 
Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to
3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of
the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to
increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash
and urban flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the
coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today.
These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell,
will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal
flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday
morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water
levels that are already running well above predicted levels.
Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous
coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Source: Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory Number 53

...RACHEL HOLDING STEADY WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 the center of Rachel was located near 24.2, -121.4 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Source: Summary for Tropical Storm Rachel (EP3/EP182026)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026

652 
WTPZ23 KNHC 100851
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 121.4W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 110SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 180SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 121.4W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 122.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 130SE 100SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.0N 114.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE  40SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 121.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 10/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS

Source: Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Advisory Number 53

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100845
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Isaias has very rapidly weakened over Alabama and has transitioned 
into a post-tropical cyclone.  Satellite images show that all deep 
convection has been scoured well northward away from the low-level 
center, with a warm front extending eastward from the former 
tropical cyclone.  Thus this is the last advisory on Isaias, with 
an initial intensity of 30 kt set from surface observations.  

The cyclone should move northward and north-northeastward this 
weekend and gradually weaken as it moves across the Tennessee and 
Ohio Valleys.  No significant changes were made to the track or 
intensity forecasts, except lower wind speed on day 1.  Note there 
is still a risk of some high wind gusts over the southern 
Appalachians as the cyclone moves just to the west of those 
mountains, along with the potential for heavy rain causing flash 
floods.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National 
Hurricane Center on this system.  Future information on this system 
can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
beginning at 1000 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header 
WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml 
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the post-tropical remnants of 
Isaias will be spreading quickly northward into the Tennessee 
Valley, Southern Appalachians and Southeast today.  Considerable 
flash and urban flooding will be possible. Landslides are also 
possible across the Southern Appalachians.   Additional heavy rains 
are possible across portions of Northwest Florida and heavy rains 
are also possible across coastal Southwest Florida, resulting in 
flash and urban flooding.

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are 
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from 
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During 
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink 
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 32.0N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  10/1800Z 33.7N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  11/0600Z 35.2N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  11/1800Z 37.6N  82.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Source: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026

000
FONT14 KNHC 100844
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092026               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 24   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ALBANY GA      34 94   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DOTHAN AL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34 77   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Source: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15