SPC MD 2045
MD 2045 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO

Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern and central Illinois...central
and northern Indiana...western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192152Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop along a west-to-east
oriented boundary through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have been increasing in
intensity along a diffuse west-to-east oriented boundary extending
from central and northern Illinois into western Ohio. Along this
boundary, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with substantial
0-3 km CAPE (150-175 J/kg). Furthermore, an 80 kt 300 mb jet streak
is overspreading the OH Valley, contributing to 50+ kts of effective
bulk shear (mainly speed shear in the mid to upper levels per RAP
forecast soundings). Given these conditions, the current thinking is
that a few of the stronger storms along this baroclinic boundary may
become transient supercellular, capable of producing a couple
instances of severe wind/hail or even a brief tornado.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40218970 40349089 40539121 40689113 40989078 41398787
            40708286 40268248 39988279 40058660 40218970 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2045.html