Mesoscale Discussion 2044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192042Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell appears possible based on recent
satellite trends. Isolated large hail and severe winds are possible
should a storm develop. A watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus has developed in northwest
Kansas over the last hour along a weak surface cold front. Very weak
ascent aloft from a glancing shortwave trough in the central Plains
could allow an isolated supercell to develop. Visible satellite
trends and some recent CAM guidance would suggest storm initiation
is probable, though not certain. The environment would support
isolated large hail and severe winds. Given the lack of greater
upper-level support, coverage and duration of severe intensity will
likely be limited.

..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38740159 39120170 39480144 39400072 39050024 38760017
            38510049 38410106 38740159 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN